At Stake on 30 October Bypolls: 32 Seats, 11 States & 2 Big National Narratives

Bypolls often don't reflect a national trend but they are presently taking place at a politically crucial time.

29 Assembly seats and 3Lok Sabha constituencies will vote in the by-elections on 30 October. Image used for representational purposes. 

(Photo: The Quint)

On Saturday, 30 October, bypolls will be held in 29 Assembly seats and three Lok Sabha constituencies spread across 11 states and Union territories.

Bypolls on their own don't often reflect any major national trend. The Quint had earlier put out data showing that ruling parties at the state level tend to have an advantage at least in certain states.

However the bypolls will send a national message as they are taking place at a politically crucial time:

• The Narendra Modi government is roughly halfway through its second term. The BJP is facing flak due to price rise, unemployment, the farmers' protest, and violence against Muslims in Tripura.

• On the other hand, increasing focus on Pakistan, attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh, and migrant workers in Kashmir are contributing to an atmosphere of polarisation that may work to the BJP's advantage.

• A churn is taking place within the Opposition with TMC, AAP, and former allies like RJD and JD(S) challenging the Congress and the G-23 faction challenging the Gandhis.

• Then, elections are due in five key states in a little over three months: Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur.

Let's look at the importance of the bypolls in terms of national politics.

Churn Within the Opposition: Congress Vs ‘Allies’

In at least four states and UTs, the Congress is in direct competition with a current or former ally.

Bihar:

In Bihar, the party and its ally the Rashtriya Janata Dal have had an aggressive war of words ahead of the by-elections in two Assembly seats of Tarapur and Kusheshwar Asthan, with RJD founder Lalu Prasad poking fun at the Congress and the latter burning his effigy in parts of the state.

Both seats going to the polls were held by the ruling Janata Dal (United) therefore the Congress and RJD don't have much to lose in the bypolls. The Congress, therefore, is trying to win back its base among Upper Caste and Dalit voters. On the other hand, the RJD is trying to get a sense of its own strength minus the Congress especially in Kusheshwar Asthan in Darbhanga district, a seat it hasn't contested in over a decade.

The bypolls also mark a return of Lalu Prasad on the campaign trail and this too may help the RJD.

Karnataka:

The Congress will be contesting against a former ally – Janata Dal (Secular) – in Hangal and Sindgi, in Karnataka. The party has accused the JD(S) of trying to harm its chances by putting up Muslim candidates in both the seats. The elections are also a test for the newly appointed chief minister Basavaraj Bommai. The BJP believes it has contained the anti-incumbency against its government by changing the CM.

The Congress, on its part, would want to wrest at least one of the two seats from its rivals. In the 2018 election, Hangal was won by the BJP and Sindgi by the JD(S).

Assam:

In Assam, the Congress is up against both its previous ally the AIUDF as well Raijor Dal, which it tried to forge a tie-up with, in the five seats going to the polls. Out of these seats three are where the the sitting MLA defected to the BJP — two from the Congress (Thowra and Mariani) and one from the AIUDF (Bhabanipur).

By renominating the three defectors, the BJP would be seeking to expand its majority in the state.

Dadra and Nagar Haveli:

One of the least discussed bypolls is taking place in the Dadra and Nagar Haveli Lok Sabha seat necessitated by the demise of Independent MP Mohan Delkar, who died by suicide earlier this year. Before his death, Delkar made a number of allegations against the BJP, especially Lakshadweep Lieutenant Governor Praful Khoda Patel, who was earlier the administrator in the UT.

Traditionally, the seat has seen a direct contest between Congress and BJP until Delkar, a former Congress MP, won as an Independent candidate in 2019.

In the by-election, his wife will be contesting as a Shiv Sena candidate, making it another contest where the Congress is contesting against an ally.

Congress held two out of the three poll-bound Assembly seats in Meghalaya's Mawryngkneng and Rajabala, while Mawphlang was held by an Independent. The party would hope to retain its seats otherwise it may strengthen the narrative of its decline in the northeast that the TMC is trying to push. The party recently managed to prevent the shift of former CM Mukul Sangma to the TMC.

In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress may be hoping to win all four poll-bound seats and provide a further boost to its national plans. Read a detailed report on the bypolls here.

Bjp: Defections, Expansion and Anti-incumbency

BJP's Reliance on Defectors:

The BJP would naturally be hoping to improve its tally in Assam through Congress defectors in Thowra and Mariani and the AIUDF turncoat Phanidhar Talukdar in Bhabanipur. It may also be counting on its ally UPPL to put up a good performance in Gossaigaon and Tamulpur.

Another seat that the BJP is banking on a defector to help it expand is Huzurabad in Telangana. The bypoll is taking place after sitting Telangana Rashtra Samithi leader Eatala Rajender defected to the BJP.

The bypoll is taking place at a time when the ruling TRS is facing a challenge from an aggressive BJP as well as a resurgent Congress.

The bypoll will be a test of the TRS' resilience as well as the strength of its two challengers.

The BJP is relying on an import even in the bypoll to the Deglur Assembly seat in Maharashtra's Nanded district. It has given a ticket to a former Shiv Sena MLA. The bypoll is taking place due to the death of the Congress MLA Raosaheb Antapurkar. The ruling MVA has allotted the seat to the Congress, which has fielded the late MLA's son.

Bipolar Contests:

Ten seats spread across three states will be seen in light of the bipolar tussle between the BJP and the Congress in these states. These include three Assembly (Arki, Jubbal, and Fatehpur) and one Lok Sabha seat (Mandi) in Himachal Pradesh, three Assembly (Prithvipur, Raigaon, and Jobat), one Lok Sabha seat in Madhya Pradesh (Khandwa), and two Assembly seats (Vallabh Nagar and Dhariawad) in Rajasthan.

The Mandi seat in Himachal Pradesh fell vacant following the death by suicide of BJP MP Ram Swaroop.

The elections in both HP and Madhya Pradesh will be seen as a referendum on the BJP governments in the state while the same may be seen in the context of the Congress government in the Rajasthan bypolls. In the Vallabh Nagar seat of Udaipur district, factional rivalries within the BJP are also important, as Vasundhara Raje was seen to be backing Randhir Singh Bhinder, a former BJP leader presently leading the Janata Sena Rajasthan while Gulabchand Kataria was opposed to him. A win for Bhinder will be a shot in the arm for Raje while a win for the official BJP candidate may go against her. A Congress win may actually be a neutral outcome for both.

Though not bipolar, another important bypoll from the national point of view is Ellenabad in Haryana, which fell vacant after Indian National Lok Dal's Abhay Chautala resigned in protest against the farm laws. Chautala is looking to captalise on the farmers' protest and win big as it would be an important step in the INLD's effort to dislodge the JJP in the power struggle within the Chautala family. The BJP on the other hand, would hope for a respectable performance to send the signal that the farmers' protest isn't harming it politically any more.