COVID-19: One Infected Person in Delhi Could Infect Two More, Says IIT Study

With an R-Value of 2.1, one infected person in Delhi could be infecting two more.

Since Delhi's R value this week stood at 2.1, it could mean that for every single person infected with COVID-19, there could be two more who stand a high chance of catching the virus.

(Photo: The Quint/Kamran Akhter)

A person infected with COVID-19 in Delhi could be infecting at least two more, reveals a preliminary analysis of the national capital's R-value, carried out by Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Madras, reported news agency PTI.

In simple terms, the 'R' or reproductive value is used to understand the range or number of people an infected person can spread the disease to.

Since Delhi's R value this week stood at 2.1, it could mean that for every single person infected with COVID-19, there could be two more who stand a high chance of catching the virus.

According to the analysis, India's R value is at 1.3.

The analysis – made by computational modelling – was conducted by the Department of Mathematics and Centre of Excellence for Computational Mathematics and Data Science headed by Prof Neelesh S Upadhye and Prof S Sundar.

But the possibility of one person infecting two others in the national capital mat not immediately suggest the onset of a new wave of COVID-19, Dr Jayant Jha, Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics, IIT Madras, told PTI.

“We can only say right now that every person is affecting two others... but we need to wait a bit to declare onset... we don't know about the immunity status and whether the people who got affected during the third wave in January are getting affected or not again."

Dr Jayant Jha, Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics, IIT-Madras

On Friday, the national capital registered 1,042 COVID-19 cases, taking the positivity rate to 4.64 percent.

According to the news agency, genome sequencing – conducted in the first two weeks of April – of a majority of positive samples tested in Delhi have revealed the presence of Omicron sub-lineage BA.2.12, which could be variant driving the uptick in cases.

An Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium source the news agency spoke to claimed that "Omicron variant derivative BA.2.12.1 has also been found in a few samples in Delhi."