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As the horrors of India’s second wave of COVID-19 unfold, with a paucity of hospital beds, crematoriums running over-time, a flood of ‘SOS’ calls, and a terrifying oxygen crisis in the national-capital, it has emerged that the Indian government had been warned about factors contributing to the surge. Further, scientists have said that the government had gone on to ignore the warnings.
A report by Reuters quotes Indian scientists and sheds light on all the times the Indian government was warned, and what they did (not do).
A forum of scientific advisers set up by the government itself had warned Indian officials in early March of a new and more contagious variant of coronavirus, five scientists who were members of the forum informed Reuters.
Further, as per Reuters, INSACOG shared its findings with the health ministry’s National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) before 10 March, warning of a quick spike of infection in many parts of the country.
The findings were, thereby, passed on to the Indian health ministry, the director of the northern India research centre informed.
INSACOG, also, started to ready a draft media statement for the health ministry. A version of that draft, accessed by Reuters, states that “the new Indian variant had two significant mutations to the portion of the virus that attaches to human cells, and it had been traced in 15 percent to 20 percent of samples from Maharashtra, India's worst-affected state.”
The draft statement also pointed out that the mutations, called E484Q and L452R, were of “high concern.”
Further, as per Reuters, the northern India research centre director said that the draft media release was sent to the most senior bureaucrat in the country, Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba, who reports directly to the prime minister.
However, Reuters was unable to find out whether Modi or his office were made privy to the findings.
Four of the five scientists who have informed Reuters about the warning also said that despite of it, the government did not seek to impose any major curbs to stop the spread of the virus.
As per Reuters, the government made the INSACOG findings public after about to weeks of having received them, on 24 March, issuing a statement to the media that did not include the words “high concern.”
The statement, merely, said more problematic variants needed adherence to measures already underway – increased testing and quarantine.
According to a recording accessed by Reuters, the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) director Sujeet Kumar Singh, on 19 April, told a private online gathering that strict lockdown measures were needed in early April.
Even though, Singh did not mention in the meeting whether he had warned the government directly on the need for action at that time, he did say that he had conveyed the urgency of the matter more recently to the government officials.
In reference to a meeting on 18 April, with unknown government officials, Singh said:
The need for urgent action was iterated on 15 April by the National Task Force for COVID-19, which is chaired by the PM Modi’s “top coronavirus advisor” Dr VK Paul.
The group had “unanimously agreed that the situation is serious and that we should not hesitate in imposing lockdowns,” as per a scientist who had attended the meeting.
It is not clear whether Dr Paul had relayed the same need to PM Modi.
What is known, however, is that two days after Singh’s warning to government officials and five days after the COVID task force meet, PM Modi on 20 April addressed the nation and argued against lockdowns.
Stating that lockdown would be the last resort, and that in the previous year it was the lockdowns that had devastated the economy, PM Modi had said: “We have to try our best to avoid lockdowns and focus on micro-containment zones.”
Meanwhile, dismissing legitimate concerns of a surge in COVID-19 cases, the Indian government, in the early months of 2021, either proclaimed a victory over COVID or peddled unsubstantiated assumptions. Here are some of them:
Rakesh Mishra, director of the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology, which is part of INSACOG, shared with Reuters that the country’s scientific community was dejected.
Meanwhile, Shanta Dutta, a medical research scientist at the state-run National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases told Reuters: “We are in a very grave situation.”
Dutta also lamented: “People listen to politicians more than scientists.”
India on Sunday, 2 May, reported 3.92 lakh new COVID-19 cases with 3,689 people having lost the battle to the infection in the past 24 hours, as per the Union Health Ministry.
Meanwhile, Delhi reported over 20,300 new COVID-19 cases, with 407 deaths on Sunday, making it the second consecutive day the national capital recorded over 400 deaths.
Amid rising cases, Odisha joined the list of states to declare a lockdown in the state from 5-14 May.
(With inputs from Reuters)
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