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On Monday, 5 April, Delhi reported over 4,033 cases of the novel coronavirus and 21 deaths, a steep rise in just over a month. According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) data, on 1 March, Delhi had reported just 175 cases with 1 death.
It's also the time when a number of people declared the pandemic over, became causal and ignorant of the COVID-appropriate behaviours drilled down over the last one year, and the festive season towards the month's end meant these protocols were swept up in vivid colours.
The pandemic, though, is far from over and the capital city faces its fourth wave.
Delhi: Rapid Rise in COVID Numbers
As of 3 April, Delhi's positivity rate, the number of positive samples from total tests conducted, was 4.11 percent. Delhi's Health Minister, Satyendar Jain, says Delhi is testing the most number of people.
Case fatality rate has remained at 1.6 percent for the capital and doctors attribute it to learnings from the past year and better treatment protocols. Over all, there is a 9 percent increase in younger patients compared to the last wave.
While these are early observations and a clearer picture will arise once more data comes in and more time has passed (remember, today's cases are 2-week-later's fatalities), there are other reasons why mortality could go up. It has to do with hospital systems getting overwhelmed, which is what happen in smaller cities in Maharashtra.
According to the DelhiFightsCorona app, that the Delhi government set up last year to provide easy information on availability of beds, the city as of 5 April, has 50 percent beds available.
But when it comes to ICU beds, these are fast filling out. Of the 794 ventilator beds, 465 are occupied, while 329 are available.
While the Delhi government has asked the hospitals to increase bed capacity from 15 to 25 percent and progressively add more beds, it's easier said than done.
Dr Sumit Ray, Medical Superintendent and head of critical care unit at Delhi's Holy Family Hospital, says that the hospital has several patients for scheduled elective surgeries and other non-COVID healthcare services, many of these had been pushed due to COVID. Unlike the previous waves, when elective surgeries had almost stopped, it won't be easy to scale things up, and it needs a graded response.
Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has ruled out a lockdown in the capital and written a letter to the Prime Minister asking for relaxing of rules to open more vaccination centers, and to open vaccination for everyone.
Meanwhile, night curfew has been imposed in Delhi from 10 pm to 5 am with immediate effect till 30 April in the wake of the COVID situation, the Delhi government said on Tuesday, 6 April.
He's also asked that the state be allowed to vaccinate outside hospitals. In order to speed up the vaccination campaign, he's proposed a two-step strategy:
"First, there is an urgent need to increase the number of vaccination centers. For this, the pre-conditions placed by the Centre regarding vaccination centers need to be relaxed. For example, according to the instructions of the Central government, vaccination centers can only be set up in hospitals or dispensaries."
He adds, "The vaccination drive in the last three months has shown that the vaccine is safe. It is, therefore, requested that this condition be removed so that large-scale vaccination centers can be built in schools, community centers, and other places."
In another order, the Delhi government has asked vaccine centers to remain open 24/7 in order to ramp up vaccination.
Some public health experts disagree. While vaccination drive needs to be scaled up, it will not help the city deal with the current wave. Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, a health systems expert, says the focus has to be on immediate measures to tackle the wave. Test, Trace and Treat. That will be the key. He tweeted,
While vaccines will help in reducing the possibility of a third wave, to deal with the current crisis, it's back to the basics of public health.
In an article for The Quint, Dr K Srinath Reddy, chairperson of Public Health Foundation of India, laid down the path. It's worth reproducing here:
Meanwhile, here's a refresher on the COVID-19 symptoms you need to be aware of.
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