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Global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase to almost 2019 levels this year, upending last year’s unprecedented drop caused by COVID-19 lockdowns. This means that emissions are trending upwards again, when they should be in rapid decline if we are to meet the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.
We created the Climate Clock in 2015 to show how quickly we are approaching 1.5 C, the lower limit of the Paris Agreement global temperature goal and a consequential threshold for climate impacts.
The clock tracks global emissions and temperature data, and uses the most recent five-year emissions trend to estimate how much time is left until global warming reaches the 1.5 C threshold. The new estimate of 2021 emissions removes almost a year from the countdown, which means that we are now only a little more than 10 years from 1.5 C.
The Climate Clock is a way to visualise and measure progress towards our global climate targets. The date moves closer in time as emissions rise or pushes further back as they decrease. Each year, we have updated the clock to reflect the latest global data, as well as our improving scientific understanding of what level of emissions is required to limit warming to 1.5 C.
Second, the Global Carbon Project projects global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2021 will increase by 4.9 percent from 2020, after a 5.4 percent drop between 2019 and 2020. We use the most recent five years of data to project the global trend in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, while assuming that additional carbon dioxide emissions from land-use will remain constant at the average level over the past five years.
Third, we use the latest estimate of the remaining carbon budget. This represents the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions that we can still emit, without exceeding a particular global temperature target.
The current emissions trend suggests that this moment is now only 10 years away.
When we updated the Climate Clock in 2020, the decrease in global emissions caused by COVID-related lockdowns was enough to add almost a year to the clock. But now in 2021, emissions are climbing again and the time that was previously added has now been lost. This year’s annual update has removed nine months from the countdown, which now clocks at 10 years and five months until we reach 1.5 C.
A lot can happen in a decade, however. Every avoided emission of carbon dioxide is a unit of time that we can add to the clock. Decreases in other greenhouse gases that cause warming, such as methane or nitrous oxide, will also help to extend the 1.5 C timeline, since the effects of these other gases are reflected in the estimate of the remaining carbon budget.
Net-zero by 2040 is clearly a tall order, but it is not too late to make the attempt. If we learned one thing from the COVID-19 pandemic, it is that rapid and far-reaching action in response to an acute threat can be successful in limiting the damage. Global climate change is a less acute but equally potent global threat. If we can manage to respond in kind, we will similarly succeed in limiting the damage to both current and future generations.
(H Damon Matthews is a Professor and Concordia University Research Chair in Climate Science and Sustainability at the Concordia University)
(Glen Peters is a Research Director at the Center for International Climate and Environment Research, Oslo, Norway)
(This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them. This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article here.)
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