- As part of the Pathankot attack probe, Pak authorites take Jaish-e-Mohammad Chief Masood Azhar and his brother Abdul Rauf Asghar in protective custody.
- On 13 January, Pak PM Nawaz Sharif’s office confirmed that members of JeM had been arrested.
- Pak may be forced to act because of international pressure, but it’s too early to conclude that these arrests indicate a “changed” Pak policy.
- How Delhi manages the current initiative will be instructive about where the countries’ bi-lateral relationship is headed to.
With Pakistan being forced to act after warning from India, Pak authorities today took Jaish-e-Mohammad Chief Masood Azhar in protective custody as part of the Pathankot attack probe.
PM Nawaz Sharif’s Office Confirmed the Arrest
Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s office confirmed on Wednesday (13 January) that several members of the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) had been arrested, based on information provided by India in relation to the Pathankot terror attack.
While this is yet to be confirmed officially, local Geo TV reported that JeM chief Maulana Masood Azhar and his brother Abdul Rauf Asghar have also been detained. If it’s true, the detention of Azhar (who was released in December 1999 from an Indian jail to ensure the safe release of passengers in a hijacked Indian Airlines aircraft ) is a significant development. This has also enabled Delhi to formally confirm that the FS level talks will be held as scheduled on 15 January.
Terror Continues to Rock Pakistan
It was also added that Islamabad wishes to send a team of special investigators to the Pathankot air base, and this announcement puts the ball in the Indian court – and perhaps also offers some cues about the current state of Indo-Pak relations.
Concurrently, the terror bell continues to toll, and on 13 January, Pakistan was again targeted by terror groups. Apolio centre in Quetta was attacked, resulting in 14 deaths. On the same day, the Pakistan consulate in Jalalabad, Afghanistan was attacked, leaving seven killed and many injured.
Pakistan has proclaimed that it will not be cowed down by these attacks and reiterated its determination to prosecute all terror groups – irrespective of their identity and orientation. Thus, Pathankot has become a litmus test and the fact that the JeM has in the past targeted the Pakistani state – including former Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf – may be part of the reason why their members have been arrested and the top leadership detained.
Over the last week, India had indicated that the Foreign Secretary level talks scheduled for 15 January (Friday) are linked to tangible progress by Pakistan on the evidence provided by Delhi. It appears that there has been some quiet consultation between the two countries – which is in contrast to the angry public mood in India over what is perceived as Pakistan’s duplicity over Pathankot. This calibrated silence by Delhi is a prudent policy and has paid initial dividends, as public hectoring of Islamabad would have been counter-productive.
LeT Leader Hafeez Saeed Bigger Challenge for PM Sharif
This may also help explain the rather conciliatory manner in which the Indian Home Minister Rajnath Singh stated that “there is no reason to distrust (avishwas) Pakistan” – since PM Sharif had assured India that he would take appropriate action. The sub-text being that Sharif would have to be aware of public opinion in Pakistan, and the various anti-India constituencies that are determined to scuttle the talks between the two countries.
Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) leader Hafeez Saeed, who operates with impunity under the Jamaat-ud-Dawah (JuD) banner, is the symbol of this anti-India faction in Pakistan. He will be the bigger and more complex challenge for PM Sharif. The LeT – unlike the JeM – is the more favoured terror groups. Experts refer to the Lashkar as a covert regiment of the Pakistan Army, whose origins go back to the late 1980s. The LeT and Saeed are implicated in the Mumbai terror attack of 2008, but it would be naïve to expect PM Sharif to probe too many fronts. No Pakistani leader can erase the Musharraf experience over Lal Masjid in 2007, which marked the beginning of the end of the flamboyant General.
Too Early to Conclude Arrest as a Radical Change
It appears that the NSAs of the two countries have been in ‘below the media radar’ contact, which in turn may have been enabled by the Bangkok meeting. However, it may be too early to conclude that the arrest of some JeM members is indicative of a radical change of policy by the deep-state in Pakistan. This road has been reluctantly/tentatively trod by the Pakistan Army in the past – after Mumbai in 2008 and the parliament attack in 2001 – but the net result was more cosmetic than substantive.
Yet, at a tactical level, in relation with Pakistan, it is evident that India has not moved in any significant manner. The most glaring gap is the pace of the investigation, apropos Punjab Police SP Salwinder Singh. The drug-police-politician nexus in Punjab is a major national security challenge, but successive governments in Delhi have compounded state turpitude with tenacious institutional ineptitude.
Also read:
Pathankot’s Drug Racket: Punjab May Yet Become Another Mexico
Probing Suspect Gurdaspur SP May Open Can of Worms
In Gurdaspur Terror Attack, Signs of Drug Network’s Involvement
Modi Should Address the Gaps That Lead to Pathankot
The Modi government will have to address the many gaps in the domestic security lattice that the Pathankot attack has revealed.
On the external front, the prevailing regional and global orientation is relatively more empathetic to the Indian predicament in dealing with terror emanating from Pakistan. The Afghan intelligence agencies have unambiguously identified the perfidy of the Pakistan army in supporting terror – and the US – which has long turned a Nelson’s eye to this Pakistani strategy is now becoming more vocal in public. The State of the Union address by President Obama and the grim warning about where Pakistan is headed is case in point, as also the mood in the US Congress.
How Delhi manages the current initiative from Pakistan by way of the JeM arrests, including that of Azhar, will be instructive about where the bi-lateral relationship is headed over in the next few years.
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