Modi@2: Govt’s Foreign Policy Successful but Plenty Left to Do

Abhinav Pandya assesses if Namo’s foreign policy has been successful.

In the two years of the BJP government, Modi’s strongest footprint can be felt in the domain of foreign policy. However, the story is not all about the resounding success of the high-octane diplomacy of Modi ji. There have been flip-flops and strategic miscalculations emanating from the dearth of clarity and professionalism in routine diplomacy, absence of policy-based strategic planning and the systemic malaise of bureaucratic inefficiency.

On the relationship with Pakistan, the Modi government has been accused of strategic miscalculations and flip-flops in its handling of the foreign-secretary level dialogue process and the Pathankot terror attacks.

However, I would like to argue that in the case of Pakistan, India has a very narrow framework of policy alternatives in decision-making. This is because the Pakistani establishment has multiple players and a certain vagueness prevails in terms of whom to engage. It is more or less futile to engage with the democratic leadership as the domain of foreign policy is strictly guarded by the army.

Ayesha Siddiqa, a prominent military expert of Pakistan opines in her book, Military Inc. that a huge share of the budget, resources, privileges and perks are claimed by the Pak army only by keeping the India threat alive.

Successful Diplomatic Isolation of Pakistan

The anti-India terror infrastructure has been raised with due care and effort by the Pakistan army over the last 60 years of its existence. Prominent historian MJ Akbar has written in his seminal text on the history of Pakistan, Tinderbox-The Past and Future of Pakistan, that Islamic extremism is in the DNA of our neighbour. Hence, it will continue to support the jihadi terror infrastructure against India and this has been amply proved by history.

India cannot have any serious engagement with Pakistan unless it is proportionately reciprocated by substantial cooperation and progress in dismantling this terror infrastructure. Taking this as a basic premise in Indo-Pak relations, it’s safe to be realistic and argue that diplomacy has very limited use. So, to prevent further escalation, India can use diplomacy only to isolate and discredit Pakistan in the world community.

And, to that end, the Modi government has been quite successful. Today, Pakistan has been diplomatically isolated which can be seen in the cancellation of the F-16 deal between US and Pakistan. The US senate is in the final stage of passing the National Defense Authority Bill which will freeze economic aid to Pakistan for not taking any substantial action against the Haqqani network.

Further, India’s success can also be seen in the strong strategic presence of India in Afghanistan. India’s increasing proximity with Iran and Saudi Arabia has further alarmed Pakistan. With Baloch activists like Neela Qadri touring India, Pakistan is also worried by the prospects of India’s support to the Baloch freedom struggle.

Attitudinal Shift in Strategic Planning

The Indo-China relationship must now be seen in the larger geopolitical context of the latter’s expansionism in the South China Sea and America’s rebalancing in Asia. The whole visa episode of Dolkun Isa is more a reflection of an attitudinal change in Indian strategic thinking rather than a policy blunder. It is a message in clear terms that India has the ability to respond effectively. Bruce Jones of the Brookings Institution argues that India’s relations with China will continue to be defined by the “duality” of economic cooperation and increasing strategic competition.

So far, India has successfully speed-dated with China and the USA simultaneously, keeping its neutrality intact but increasing proximity to the US. China’s expansionism in the South China Sea might put India in a situation where it will not have the privilege of staying non-aligned.

To expect any radical solutions to the border disputes will be an unrealistic idea because rivalries now venture beyond these and are rooted in India and China’s great power ambitions in the changing power balance of the world. Hence, India’s policy choices will be of containment and engagement in the strategic domain as well as cooperation in the economic domain.

Nepal Blunder

The Modi government’s biggest blunder in foreign policy has been with Nepal. Modi’s visits to Nepal to reboot the strong cultural ties and the aid during the earthquake had generated an immense amount of goodwill. But India has lost this now due to its arrogance and undue interference in the recent issue of Nepal’s constitution and Madhesi agitation. India has been accused of supporting the Madhesi agitation which has blocked essential supplies to Nepal.

Nuanced reflection will also bring forth India’s domestic electoral and political compulsions providing impetus to India’s alleged support for the Madhesis. The result can be seen on the streets of Nepal where people are burning the tri-colour and effigies of PM Modi.

The matter becomes even more alarming when we factor in the increasing Chinese presence in infrastructure development and policy-making in Nepal. China’s proximity to Pakistan is getting stronger day by day and it is not in our strategic interest to have a rival triangle of China, Pakistan and Nepal. If we lose Nepal, it could serve as a conduit to strengthen the Maoist and jihadi elements in India for Pakistan and China.

Highs and Lows of Foreign Policy

• Pakistan: Initiative for a dialogue marred by incidents like Pathankot attack; dismantling of terror network in Pakistan is the bone of contention.
  
• China: Controversy over issuing visa to Chinese dissident leader Dolkun Isa reflects an attitudinal shift, taking a neutral stand is in Delhi’s own interest.
  
• Nepal: India’s interference in the country’s internal affairs has not gone down well.
• India ratifying the land boundary agreement was a significant achievement with Bangladesh; the UPA government had signed the pact in 2011.
• Possibility of India-US-Israel-Japan and Saudi alliance will pave way for India taking up a strong leadership role globally.
  

Expanding India’s Global Footprint

Overall, the scorecard is in favour of Modi. With his historic land boundary agreement with Bangladesh and proactive stand on issues of terrorism, solar energy, climate change, cyber-space, nuclear arms and the UN reform process, he’s brought a sea-change in India’s image. From a passive rule-blocker (in the name of “strategic autonomy”), India now comes across as a rule-shaper with strong leadership ambitions by constructively engaging and cooperating with the world community.

Further, his efforts in reaching out to Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand, leveraging strong cultural ties, and creating an effective check to China’s aggression are laudable. In the future, the possibility of an India-US-Israel-Japan and Saudi alliance can’t be ruled out and if this happens, India will be called upon to play a strong leadership role.

In order to play its cards well, a major power like India needs a plethora of reforms like expanding the size of the foreign service cadre, which, in the words of WPS Sindhu of Brookings, is the “smallest not only in G-20, but also in BRICS group of countries”. The efficiency of the service must also improve by better training and promoting expertise through lateral entry. Lastly, India also needs to focus on strategic thinking in the foreign policy planning process as well as on increasing its intelligence footprint in the world.

(The writer is Project Consultant, ILO, Delhi. He can be reached at @abhinavpandya)

Also read:

• Modi@2: No Sign of Promised Big Bang Reforms
  
• 2 Years of Acche Din: Meenakshi Lekhi on NDA’s Policy Initiatives