The Jadhav Episode is a Potential Indo-Pak Peace Deal Killer

India-Pakistan bilateral relations are episodic in nature. This relationship takes a cyclical route as the history suggests. The engagement between the two nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours is very much like the Tom-and-Jerry relationship which is governed by events – that’s why it is episodic.

One episode that has emerged as a top grosser in the India-Pakistan relationship is the case of Kulbhushan Jadhav, a former Indian Navy’s middle-ranking official who was recently arrested by Pakistan, allegedly from Balochistan, and allegedly on espionage charges.

India has owned up to Jadhav, a rarity in intelligence-craft when it comes to spies and espionage. Pakistan has pushed the envelope by alleging that Jadhav was an Indian spy who was on the payrolls of Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) – India’s external intelligence agency – who had sneaked into the Pakistani territory to stoke insurgency in the badlands of Pakistan’s restive Balochistan province.

The Case of the Mysterious ‘Confessional’ Video

India has strongly refuted and debunked the Pakistani claims. The Indian denial is simple: that Jadhav was indeed a retired Indian Navy officer but had nothing to do with spying and espionage. Pakistan has struck back in this diplomatic game and come up with a so-called confessional video wherein Jadhav is being shown as an Indian spy who had left the Indian Navy to join RAW.

In this video, the alleged spy is seen spilling the beans and telling the world that his mission was to instigate the Balochistan insurgency. India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has debunked these claims and has contended that Jadhav’s alleged video confession was nothing but “tutoring”.

After all, the Pakistani claims of Jadhav being an alleged RAW spy do not gel. Here is a former Indian Navy official who has been arrested from a hostile territory like Pakistan – with a valid Indian passport! This is unthinkable. Indian intelligence agencies may be the worst in the world, for the sake of argument, but they are definitely not stupid.

One Has to Consider the Timing of the Incident

Even if, presuming for the sake of argument, that Jadhav was an Indian spy, he would not be travelling to an enemy country with a valid Indian passport! Moreover, even the Pakistanis have not proffered any evidence that Jadhav was travelling to Pakistan on Indian passport.

This makes it clear that Jadhav was, in all probability, compromised and he was picked up from somewhere else, most likely from Iran, but his arrest was shown from Balochistan. Whatever may be the reality, one has to consider the timing of the incident. The Jadhav episode came to light when Pakistan’s Joint Investigation Team (JIT) was in India to probe the terror attack on Indian airbase of Pathankot. One can only infer that the Pakistani motive was to use the Jadhav episode as leverage in Islamabad’s dealings with New Delhi.

Now, coming to the alleged confessional video of Jadhav, one must not forget that the subject is in Pakistani custody and has no option but to dance the tunes of his captors. His statement that he is not making his statement under duress has to be taken with a bucketful of salt.

Pakistan Needs to be Sensitised to the Larger Picture.

It is indeed a pity that Pakistan has unleashed its dirty tricks department at a time when the two estranged neighbours are smoking the peace pipe. The fact that Pakistan has chosen to bare its fangs at India at the crucial time when the two neighbours’ political establishments are engaged in a serious peace-making effort only goes to hint at some ulterior motives.

Commander Jadhav is not a nobody and the Indian government has not disowned him. On the contrary, India has owned that Jadhav is a retired Indian Navy officer and should be released. But Pakistan is hell-bent on doing otherwise and trying its best to paint Jadhav as a spy. Pakistan needs to be sensitised to the larger picture. It must understand that the Narendra Modi government has invested hugely in the cause of improving bilateral relations.

Good Politics, Bad Diplomacy

Bringing up charges of terror-trafficking against a former Indian Navy official may give Pakistan acres of news coverage, but will undo inches of political goodwill that the peace efforts driven by the two PMO’s have generated.

This may be good politics on Pakistan’s part, but it is definitely bad diplomacy on Islamabad’s part. The Jadhav episode, in for the long haul, is one more irritant – and a serious one – that the Modi government has to contend with. It’s a potential peace deal killer.

(Rajeev Sharma is an independent journalist and strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha)