Afghan Peace Talks: Will India Consider Opening Up With Taliban?

In the larger interest of Afghanistan, will India be comfortable in engaging in a dialogue with the Taliban groups?

Afghanistan and its principal foreign supporter America, along with China, are making a renewed attempt to persuade Pakistan to bring the Taliban to hold direct talks with the Ghani administration. The four countries’ Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG), set up on the margins of the Heart of Asia Conference on Afghanistan held in Islamabad in December 2015, is the principal vehicle for this purpose.

External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj represented India at the Conference. Does India’s exclusion from the principal group engaged in peacemaking efforts in Afghanistan constitute a setback to India’s position and interests in a country that is vital to its security?

Taking Taliban On Board

President Ghani is convinced that peace and stability can only be restored to Afghanistan through reaching a modus vivendi with the Taliban. As its continuing support is critical for the Taliban, only Pakistan can make it abandon violence and negotiate a peace deal with Kabul.

Knowing that the Pakistani generals hold the key, Ghani actively wooed them as soon as he was sworn in September 2014. For this purpose, he was willing to effectively dilute the India-Afghanistan relationship. In doing so he enraged large sections of Afghan public opinion that was especially outraged at Pakistani duplicity at hiding Mullah Omar’s death and connivance with continuing Taliban violence.

That put Ghani on the back foot but he has held on to his paradigm. The US also is convinced that this approach is necessary and has roped in China to pressure the generals. China unlike the past, is taking a greater interest in Afghanistan for security and economic reasons but it is unlikely to pressurise Pakistan to take any step it is reluctant about.

India’s Exclusion From Peacemaking Efforts

Pakistan has always desired that India plays a limited role in Afghanistan, and in international fora to bring peace to the country. The international community, conscious that Pakistan could be an effective spoiler, accepted its demands in the 1990s. After the defeat of the Taliban in November 2001, India’s role grew in Afghanistan partly because of its popular assistance programme.

Consequently, the Indian voice was heard with greater respect on Afghanistan by the international community. This greatly alarmed Pakistan which is paranoid about so-called Indian encirclement.

Prima facie India’s exclusion from peacemaking efforts is because it has obviously no influence over the Taliban and Pakistan. This is a plausible position for America and Afghanistan to take superficially. The crucial question is if it is meant to restrict India’s role in a limited way to the economic sector. That would be in keeping with the Pakistani concerns. Clearly that will damage Indian interests and it should take steps to counter it.

Restoring Peace and Stability in Afghanistan

• President Ghani is convinced that peace and stability can only be restored in Afghanistan by taking the Taliban on board.
  
• Ghani is also trying to address India’s concerns and is briefing on developments within the Quadrilateral Coordination Group.
  
• Recent reports indicate that Afghanistan wishes to set up a 6+1 group so that the efforts of the QCG are not squandered away.
  
• India will have to play a skilful game to navigate through a possible Taliban presence in Afghanistan.
  

Afghanistan Reaches Out To India

Ghani is now showing some sensitivity to Indian concerns. He is no longer willing to eliminate India’s role in the security sector and is briefing India on developments within the QCG. He also went out of his way to welcome Prime Minister Modi during his visit to Kabul in December 2015.

Recent reports indicate that Afghanistan wishes to set up a 6+1 group consisting of the US, China, Pakistan, Iran, India and Russia as foreign partners. Whatever objectives may be shown on paper its real purpose would be to ensure that Iran, India and Russia who had supported the Northern Alliance during the Afghan civil war in the 1990s because of apprehensions about the Taliban do not erode the efforts of the QCG. It remains to be seen how Pakistan will react to this proposal.

Road Ahead for India

The QCG has held four meetings so far. For now, Pakistan seems to have agreed to permit direct meetings between the Afghan government representatives and the Taliban meetings in Islamabad.

A meeting is scheduled for early March. As Pakistan decided Mullah Mansoor to be Omar’s successor his representatives are likely to participate. However the road to reconciliation is long and hard for Taliban violence to significantly diminish in the near term. Its main aim would be to gain international legitimacy.

India will have to play a skilful game to navigate through a possible Taliban presence in Afghanistan. It will have to consider opening up with the Taliban groups while keeping its own constituencies in the country intact. The move that India makes will depend on its position within Afghanistan and its relevance internationally on the Afghan issue.

(The writer is a former Secretary (West), Ministry of External Affairs.)

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