Lalu Yadav’s Erstwhile Bastion is Witnessing a Battle of Sorts

Both Raghopur and Alinagar constituencies will test the strength of Lalu’s M-Y vote bank, writes Mayank Mishra.

The people of Raghopur, an assembly constituency barely 25 kilometres away from Patna in Bihar’s Vaishali district, have to adjust to a curtailed marriage season spanning not more than six months.

Surrounded as Raghopur is, by the Ganga and the Gandak, the so-called VIP constituency remains cut off from the rest of the state. The only bridge connecting Raghopur to the mainland becomes non-functional for nearly six months. Once considered as the impregnable fortress of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Raghopur is witnessing an interesting battle between RJD chief Lalu Prasad’s son Tejaswi Yadav and sitting MLA Satish Kumar Yadav. Satish joined the BJP after not being given the ticket by the Janata Dal (United).

The Yadav-dominated Raghopur elected Lalu Prasad in 1995 and 2000 and Rabri Devi won the seat in the two assembly elections held in 2005. But the RJD fortress was swept away by the Nitish Kumar wave in the 2010 assembly polls when Rabri lost to the then JD(U) candidate Satish Kumar. The RJD is back again to reclaim this seat with Lalu Prasad kicking off his campaign in Raghopur although polling in the constituency is still almost a month away.

Swords are Out

• Raghopur constituency, considered as Lalu’s bastion witnessing a clash between Tejaswi and sitting BJP MLA
• Mahua constituency turns into a war zone with RJD supporter Ravindra Rai switching support in favour of Manjhi
• RJD leader Abdul Bari Siddiqui locked in a battle in Alinagar with a self-proclaimed disciple of Lalu
• Both Raghopur and Alinagar will test the strength of Muslim-Yadav vote bank of Lalu
• It will be Yadav versus Yadav fight as BJP also carefully fields Yadav candidates

Friends Turned Foes

In adjoining Mahua constituency, Tejaswi’s elder brother, Tej Pratap is locked in a tussle with Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustan Awam Morcha’s Ravindra Rai. Rai, the sitting MLA and a close associate of Lalu Prasad till recently, is one of several leaders who have switched over to other camps, giving the RJD a tough fight in its bastion.

Mishri Lal Yadav, a two-time member of the legislative council and a self-proclaimed disciple of Lalu till nearly a month ago, is another leader who is pitted against the RJD strongman, Abdul Bari Siddiqui as the BJP candidate from Alinagar assembly constituency in Darbhanga district.

A friend who met Mishri Lal a few months ago told me that, “Mishri Lal would not like anyone criticising Lalu Prasad in front of him.” Even as late as July, he had contested the legislative council election as the RJD nominee. But now he is contesting against one of Lalu Prasad’s trusted associates.

Raghopur and Alinagar are being considered as keenly contested battles. Lalu Prasad’s core support base comprising Yadavs and Muslims will be put to the test in these constituencies. Raghopur has nearly 100,000 Yadavs whereas Alinagar has a sizeable presence of both Yadavs and Muslims.

The battle for Imamganj seat in Gaya district will be yet another hotly contested one. Here, former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi is pitted against JD(U) leader and Speaker of the outgoing assembly Uday Narayan Choudhary. It will decide which way the votes of the Mahadalits will go.

Muscle Power in Full Display

Sensing a tough battle ahead, both the major coalitions – the BJP-led NDA and the Nitish Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan – have been very generous in nominating candidates with considerable muscle power. While two of the big names – Anant Singh and Sunil Pandey – will not contest this time, others like Manoranjan Singh and Kali Pandey are very much in the fray. In many cases, relatives of bahubalis too have been fielded.

While a detailed analysis of all the contestants is yet to be done, on the face of it, the scenario does not seem to be very different from what it was in 2010. According to an Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) analysis, more than 50% candidates of all major political parties in the last assembly elections had pending criminal cases against them. In fact, ADR data shows that more than a third of all candidates had pending criminal cases against them.

Talk Development and Use Social Engineering

While muscle power enhances winnability, political parties are still focused on getting the caste combination right. By selecting as many as 55% members of other backward classes (OBCs) as nominees, the Mahagathbandhan is hoping for a consolidation of members of the community in its favour. The alliance’s list of candidates has as many as 26% Yadavs and 15% Muslims. It shows that the alliance is banking on Lalu Prasad’s tried and tested MY combination.

A careful analysis of the BJP’s candidates, on the other hand, indicates that other than pleasing its core support base of upper castes, the party is eyeing a chunk of Yadav votes. The BJP has fielded more Yadavs than Bhumihars, Brahmins and Vaishyas, the three groups considered its traditional supporters. Surprisingly, only 9% candidates announced by the BJP belong to extremely backward classes (EBCs).

EBCs are supposed to tilt the balance either way. But none of the two alliances has gone out of the way to woo them by fielding more candidates from this group. Is this risk aversion or a reflection of vocal groups walking away with a lion’s share of the cake?

(Mayank Mishra writes regularly for the Business Standard)